Research Firm Executive Explains Optimistic Market Forecast

The research firm Clarivate projected the global aesthetics market to reach a value of €22.9 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 8%. This growth, Clarivate said, is driven by trends such as the shift toward natural-looking treatments, the rise of combination treatments, and the increasing impact of social media on cosmetic procedure awareness. The company projects the injectables market to reach €13.1 billion by 2028, with increasing demand from diverse demographics such as younger individuals and men. Continued growth is also being seen in the markets for breast implants, physician-dispensed cosmeceuticals, and energy-based devices. Additionally, Clarivate noted that the use of GLP-1 agonists for weight loss has led to an increased demand for body contouring procedures.

Modern Aesthetics spoke about those issues and more with Clarivate Senior Healthcare and Research Analyst, Medtech Insights, Swarnadip Dutta—who presented earlier this year at the International Master Course on Aging Science (IMCAS) meeting in Paris, France.

HOW DID THE TRENDS IN THE AESTHETIC MARKET COMPARE WITH WHAT YOU HAVE OBSERVED IN OTHER MARKETS?

The Clarivate team covers a wide range of medtech markets, and we are seeing some strong and key fundamental differences in aesthetics. These procedures are non-reimbursable and paid out of pocket, and the patients who opt for them are primarily getting their finances arranged well in advance and committing to these treatments as part of their daily aesthetic routines or beauty routines. Typically, two to three procedures in a year are common, and any deviations or discontinuation can cause the results to fade. As a result, patients typically stick with these repetitive procedures and the demand remains steady, leading to strong resilience of the market against any other factor in terms of economic headwinds.

Another very interesting trend goes beyond the existing affluent patient base that has already committed themselves to this regimen: We are seeing a strong influx of new patients coming primarily from Gen Z, the younger population. Those in this population, especially women, often prefer to seek preventative treatment or early intervention and maintenance rather than correction later in their lives. That is definitely helping the market.

Artificial intelligence (AI), of course, has become a huge talking point and is revolutionizing this industry overall. We have seen the impact of AI directly on the personalization of these procedures. For example, an AI algorithm can help analyze a patient's genetics, their lifestyle, and their environment along with their history of procedures. Everything can be thoroughly analyzed and used to create custom solutions. AI also can enhance technologies such as high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) and radiofrequency microneedling with very precise outputs that lead to less downtime.

WHICH SPECIFIC AESTHETIC SEGMENTS STAND OUT MOST AS GROWTH DRIVERS?

GLP-1 drugs have definitely started positively influencing this market. There's no doubt about that. By extension, GLP-1s have helped to increase acceptance of other aesthetic procedures in regular beauty routines across the globe. Toxin  and dermal fillers are the major two segments across various ages, and we are seeing strong traction coming for these procedures. Gen Z women are preferring to undergo lip enhancement procedures, and when they move to their 30s and 40s, the preference often shifts toward volume restoration in the cheeks and the under-eyes. Male aesthetics is on the rise as well; many men are getting botulinum toxin injections and jawline fillers. The aging population also continues to drive demand for cosmetic procedures; for example, the natural skin laxity  or the skin loosening that they face as they age are driving demand for facelifts and other similar procedures. The other thing specifically being talked about quite a lot is body contouring—primarily liposuctions and tummy tuck procedures. Non-invasive procedures, especially with energy-based devices, are also on the rise, such as CoolSculpting. And, finally, we are seeing a different and very interesting trend with hair transplantation; that has recently gained traction. That is driving the overall aesthetic industry forward, too.

IN WHICH OTHER MEDICAL MARKETS HAVE YOU SEEN GLP-1S BEING A SIGNIFICANT DRIVER, AND HOW DO THEY COMPARE TO THIS ONE?

Based on our desk research, we have observed many  physicians reporting a strong influence of GLP-1 drugs on joint pain, although this is quite surprising, but the fact is the more GLP-1 users are complaining about joint pain, arthritis, and even tendonitis. This has definitely impacted the rising volume of overall large-joint reconstruction procedures, or hip and knee procedures, to be very specific.

Separately, many surgical procedures have limitations if a patient is obese or has a lot of fat deposits. GLP-1s usage has given them the opportunity to have their weight managed within the suggested range, and that makes them eligible candidates for more procedures.

HOW MUCH VARIATION DID YOU OBSERVE IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES WHEN YOU WERE PUTTING TOGETHER THIS RESEARCH?

There are some definite differences. With GLP-1s, for example, several factors lead to faster adoption in the US and Europe. Their overall healthcare expenditure is much higher compared to many other geographies, which also gives them the advantage of having better diagnostic infrastructure and more widespread awareness. The US and Europe are also seeing a very high prevalence of diabetes cases. And as a consequence of this, there is a rapid GLP-1 adoption, which in turn will lead to the subsequent aesthetic impact  we are talking about. This is quite different when we talk about the Asia Pacific and the Middle East.

FOR MARKET SEGMENTS LIKE NEUROTOXINS AND FILLERS, ARE YOU OBSERVING VARIATIONS IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD?

Yes. We need to understand, first of all, that toxin  and dermal fillers primarily are the procedures that correlate with the affluency of the population of a particular country; that definitely plays an immediate role. If I talk about the Asia Pacific, cost consciousness in parts of the region have created overall limitations around the ability to afford many of these procedures because even toxin injections and dermal fill procedures are costly, especially considering the need for ongoing treatments. However, the growth potential is huge because the disposable/discretionary income is on the rise for many individuals in the Asia Pacific countries, which means they can now afford some of these procedures that they could not a couple of years back. That is why we also have predicted their growth trajectory for the next 10 years to be around 11%. That is a momentum that we feel they're going to be grasping quite easily and quickly within another couple of years, although not right now. The Middle East, on the other hand, has already started seeing a lot of impact from government initiatives. For their medical tourism, they are heavily investing  in their overall healthcare infrastructure, and that has helped them support more access to procedures such as dermal fillers, toxin, and various other aesthetic procedures. In Middle East, we are also seeing the barriers of traditional gender bias with these procedures being broken. A lot of male members in Middle Eastern countries have started undergoing these procedures as part of their regular beauty routines, which had not been the case previously.

WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE OVERALL MARKET GROWTH THAT YOU ANTICIPATE, HOW DEPENDENT WILL THAT BE ON OUTSIDE ECONOMIC FACTORS IMPACTING DISPOSABLE INCOME?

It will be dependent to an extent, of course, but at the very top level, many of these patients have signed up for aesthetic procedures because they have planned their budgets well in advance. If you think about a long-term perspective, it may not have a huge impact, but when we think about short term, it will definitely have that impact, especially because of the elective nature of these procedures.

WERE THERE ANY OTHER KEY INSIGHTS THAT YOU DISCUSSED AT IMCAS THAT YOU'D LIKE TO SHARE?

We have done modeling to predict and estimate outlooks for specific product categories, especially hybrid dermal fillers. This is something that we talked about at IMCAS, and we have also understood a lot of physicians do agree with it. Hyaluronic acid (HA) gives you that immediate skin rejuvenation and the non-HA ingredients provide the biostimulatory long-term effect. When these two come together, it almost becomes the best of both worlds. Many patients will start having a strong preference for those procedures and those hybrid products. Many of these products have been specifically approved for the cheek area. As more indications are approved, hybrid products will have even further potential to reach a different height altogether.

AI was another topic that was emphasized at IMCAS, and this is something we have covered in our medtech reports as well. We anticipate it to have a twofold effect. One is advantages from the patient's point of view with the ability to use AI to yield more specific custom solutions and more precise outputs. Additionally, AI can be integrated in clinician practice management, starting with engaging a potential patient, giving recommendations on different procedures, following up with them, and finally, just wrapping up with any postoperative procedures and protocols. The data analysis, even for marketing purposes, will be mostly supported by AI, where a physician can primarily focus on the procedure rather dedicating time to analyze data from the patient's end. Like we’re seeing in other pockets in healthcare, AI has the potential to make an impact on aesthetics too.